The weekend is finally here, which means it is time to place your NFL bets! Last week, we went 1-2 for the millionth time. We are now 13-21-1 on the season for the NFL portion of our Best Bets series. Basically everything we win on Saturdays betting on college football gets blown on NFL games on Sundays. After losing another 1.1 units over the weekend, we are now down 5.14 for the year.
It is time to turn things around. We are going big this week with a couple money line picks do just that! All lines come via Draft Kings as of Friday afternoon. Also, be sure to catch my, and my fellow ATB bettors’, locks and underdogs of the week on Around The Book. Let’s get started and dive into the best NFL bets for Week 13!
Best NFL Bets for Week 13
Falcons at Jets: Jets ML (+110)
For our first moneyline pick this week, we are taking the Jets. Yes, they have burned us several times this year. Nonetheless, there is reason to like New York in what is a must-win game for them.
Honestly, this pick is less about having faith in the Jets and more about being skeptical of the Falcons. Atlanta has no business being a road favorite against anyone. They are 1-3 on the road this year. Also, while last week’s win over the Saints may seem like a bright spot, it’s worth noting that the Falcons have not strung two straight wins together since the first two weeks of the season.
The Jets have the defense to hold this mediocre Falcons offense to the low teens. Tim Boyle should be able to guide New York’s offense to 17, which will get the job done. At +110 it’s solid value for a game that the Jets have to win if they want to see Aaron Rodgers return this season.
Dolphins at Commanders: Over 49.5 (-108)
This may not be a good game, or a close game, but we will see plenty of scoring. While the under has been the play for most of the season, this matchup is an outlier.
On average these two teams are scoring just over 51 points per game combined. They also allow a combined 52 points per game. We could see these averages increase, as we have a deadly combination of statistical outliers. Washington’s league-worst scoring defense will be tasked with stopping a Miami team with the league’s second-best scoring offense.
Expect the Dolphins to drop 40 in a blowout win. Meanwhile, the Commanders should have no problem getting to 20 while hopelessly trying to keep up. This is an easy over.
Chiefs at Packers: Packers ML (+200)
Let’s wrap things up by swinging for the fences on Sunday Night Football. Betting against the Chiefs may seem futile, but they are not as infallible as they have been in recent years. Also, this Packers team may be better than we thought.
Green Bay has been on a roll as of late. After an impressive Thanksgiving victory over the Lions, they have now won two straight games, and three out of their last four. A big reason for the recent success has been quarterback Jordan Love’s improved play. If he can keep the offense scoring and continue to limit his turnovers, the Packers can compete with anyone.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have not looked quite right as of late. They have gone 2-2 in the last four weeks, and they looked shaky early on last week against the Raiders. If Green Bay can get off to the same hot start they did against Detroit, they could jump out to a big early lead. At home, and with a ten-day rest, they should be able to hold on with the way they are playing. At +200, this pick feels pretty good.
Week 13 NFL Best Bets Recap
- Jets ML (+110)
- Dolphins at Commanders OVER 49.5 (-108)
- Packers ML (+200)
- Parlay odds: +1113