Arkansas vs Oklahoma Odds, Pick
Saturday, Dec. 9
4 p.m. ET
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The SEC takes on the Big 12 as Eric Musselman’s Arkansas Razorbacks face the undefeated Oklahoma Sooners.
Arkansas has stacked up its non-conference schedule, and losing two of its early tests to Oklahoma and North Carolina has hurt it in the rankings. However, the Razorbacks do own a big victory over Duke.
As for the Sooners, they’ve passed every test with flying colors thus far. They own victories over Iowa and USC and just took down Providence on Tuesday.
For the past few seasons, the Razorbacks have been a team built through size and length across all five positions. While this year’s team is similar, it has yet to translate into consistency on the offensive end of the floor.
Arkansas is a team that’s going to play through its athletic backcourt, which consists of Khalif Battle, Tramon Mark and El Ellis. This issue is each of the Razorbacks’ top three scoring options has an area of the floor where they’re not efficient.
Battle is shooting just 43% from inside the arc, Mark is shooting 37% from beyond the arc and Ellis is shooting just 35% from the floor.
This trio — and the rest of the Razorbacks — will go against a Sooners team that’s shown to be stout on the defensive end. Oklahoma comes into this matchup ranked 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
On top of that, the Sooners have excelled in the two areas where Arkansas has generated 70% of its offense from.
The Sooners have gotten it done on the offensive end of the floor as well. They come into this matchup 14th in effective field goal percentage, as they’ve been dynamite in the paint.
Oklahoma is eighth in the country in 2-point percentage, and unlike the Razorbacks, it’s been a group effort for the Sooners when it comes to getting high-percentage looks inside. Six guys on their roster have made over 58% of their attempts from inside the arc.
The Sooners project to have more success in the paint against Arkansas here. Nearly 45% of the Sooners’ points have come on close 2s, and over 41% of the points Arkansas has given up have come from that area of the floor.
The Sooners opened here just shy of two possession favorites, and that’s about right if you take KenPom’s projections into account.
However, Oklahoma has the potential to open this game up, as it has the edge on both ends of the floor.
Arkansas has yet to be efficient with its offensive identity, and if it goes cold for any stretch, the Sooners can go on an extended run.
Oklahoma will keep the pressure on by converting high-percentage looks, which will be its recipe for covering the spread.
Pick: Oklahoma -3.5 (Play to 4.5)
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