Fantasy basketball tips and betting picks for Monday

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ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Monday, March 13 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.


What you need to know for Monday’s games

The fantasy basketball playoffs are here. The postseason in most ESPN weekly formats tips tonight amid a seven-game slate defined by superstars with questionable availability. Luka Doncic and Tyrese Haliburton are both currently in the top 10 on the Player Rater for the season, but are expected to miss their respective games tonight. Several other impact players are dealing with injury and rest concerns.

But just as a seemingly random running back might turn out to save your fantasy football hopes in December, savvy waiver work in hoops can influence outcomes. Names you might not be familiar with could become like family after just a few busy box scores. The Indiana PacersAndrew Nembhard (97% available) is expected to start in place of Haliburton tonight while teammate Isaiah Jackson (94%) replaces another elite fantasy force in Myles Turner. Given such big leaps in minutes and opportunities, both are reasonably projected to top 30 DraftKings points.

In that same game, Killian Hayes (85% available) has a real chance to lead the entire night in dimes given how much creation responsibility he assumed in a recent matchup with this depleted Pacers roster. There are still several superstars set to define tonight’s contests, but the importance of impact interim additions has also never been greater.

— Jim McCormick


Breaking down the Monday’s slate

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan

Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 31-37 (37-31-0)
Pistons: 15-53 (30-37-1)

Line: Pacers (-3)
BPI Projection: Pacers (128-124.1)
Money Line: Pacers (-165), Pistons (+140)
BPI Projected winner: Pacers (64%)
Total: 226 points BPI Projected Total: 252.1 points

Injury Report:
Pacers: Buddy Hield, (GTD – Toe); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Ankle); Myles Turner, (OUT – Back); T.J. McConnell, (OUT – Back); Tyrese Haliburton, (OUT – Knee); Kendall Brown, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Pistons: Alec Burks, (OUT – Foot); Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Achilles); Jaden Ivey, (OUT – General Soreness); Marvin Bagley III, (OUT – Ankle); Isaiah Stewart, (OUT – Shoulder); Cade Cunningham, (OUT – Lower Leg); Hamidou Diallo, (OUT – Ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Andrew Nembhard (rostered in 1.9% of ESPN leagues) should see a ton of minutes with Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin already ruled out for Monday’s game. Buddy Hield is also questionable due to left foot soreness. Nembhard has scored 24 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. The Pistons rank 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Eric Moody

Fantasy streamer: Jalen Duren (rostered in 10.6% of ESPN leagues) is in a position to play additional minutes with Marvin Bagley III expected to miss the next few games due to right ankle soreness. This season, Duren has averaged 13.9 points and 14.1 rebounds per 40 minutes. The Pacers aren’t a stout defensive team. Indiana ranks 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Eric Moody

Fantasy streamer: Jalen Smith (rostered in 30.4% of ESPN leagues) is an excellent streamer with Myles Turner not expected to play on Monday night. He scored 42 fantasy points against the Pistons on Saturday with Turner out. The Pistons have one of the worst defensive units in the league, so Smith is in a great spot. — Eric Moody

Fantasy streamer: Killian Hayes (available in 85.7% of leagues) had a big game on Saturday with Jaden Ivey (out, COVID-19) out, and is set up for another one on Monday. On Saturday, Hayes had the ball in his hands non-stop, and turned in 17 points, 13 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals and a block in 37 minutes against the Pacers. Facing the same team, with Ivey out again, Hayes could be inline to pop again. — Snellings

Trend: The Pistons have failed to cover 10 of their past 15 home games and under tickets have come through in eight of those 10 instances. Pacer backers will be happy to know that they are positioned to come through in this spot, not just because the Pistons have struggled: they are 7-2 ATS in their past nine games and have a winning ATS mark this season when favored. — Kyle Soppe


Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia

Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 34-34 (32-36-0)
Hawks: 34-34 (30-36-2)

Line: Hawks (-5.5)
BPI Projection: Hawks (130.6-125.4)
Money Line: Timberwolves (+175), Hawks (-210)
BPI Projected winner: Hawks (68.1%)
Total: 244.5 points BPI Projected Total: 256 points

Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Austin Rivers, (GTD – Back); Rudy Gobert, (GTD – Ankle); Jaylen Nowell, (OUT – Knee); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT – Calf)
Hawks: Bogdan Bogdanovic, (GTD – Back)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Kyle Anderson (available in 76.0% of leagues) is a double-double/triple-double threat most nights that continues to fly under the radar. Anderson scored 15 points with 7 rebounds and 11 assists on Friday against the Nets, two games after scoring 18 points with 7 rebounds and 9 assists against the Kings. In his last two games in February, he averaged 12.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG and 4.0 APG. On Monday, Anderson faces a Hawks defens that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in the NBA this season. — Snellings

Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 36.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Timberwolves are in striking distance of the sixth seed, so Edwards should provide bettors with maximum effort every night. He’s surpassed 36.5 PAR in three consecutive games. The Hawks aren’t a strong defensive team ranking 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Eric Moody

Best bet: Trae Young over 27.5 points. Young has notched 28 or more points in six of his last nine games, including the last three in a row. On Monday, he faces a Timberwolves squad that has allowed the seventh-most points to opposing point guards in the NBA this season. — Snellings

Trend: The Wolves have dropped consecutive games, but they are still a very promising 13-4 ATS as an underdog since New Years and they face a Hawks team that is 14-22-1 ATS when favored this season. Minnesota road games have seen plenty of points scored (overs are 10-6-1 in their past 17) and Atlanta has allowed over 110 points in 11 of their past 12. Why use that number? The Wolves cover 58.7% of the time when they surpass 110 points, compared to just 22.7% otherwise.– Soppe


Utah Jazz at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 33-35 (37-31-0)
Heat: 36-33 (24-42-3)

Line: Heat (-7.5)
BPI Projection: Heat (130.6-120.6)
Money Line: Jazz (+240), Heat (-305)
BPI Projected winner: Heat (64.3%)
Total: 226 points BPI Projected Total: 245.1 points

Injury Report:
Jazz: Jordan Clarkson, (GTD – Finger); Collin Sexton, (OUT – Hamstring)
Heat: Caleb Martin, (GTD – Knee); Kyle Lowry, (GTD – Knee); Cody Zeller, (OUT – Nose); Duncan Robinson, (OUT – General Soreness)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Talen Horton-Tucker (rostered in 9.5% of ESPN leagues) has been superb since the All-Star Break. Over the last 12 games, he’s averaged 15.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.1 blocks. Even if Jordan Clarkson returns from a left finger sprain, Horton-Tucker remains a viable streamer. — Eric Moody


Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks
7:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 40-26 (31-32-3)
Mavericks: 34-34 (24-41-3)

Line: Grizzlies (-2)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies (124.9-123.4)
Money Line: Grizzlies (-130), Mavericks (+110)
BPI Projected winner: Grizzlies (55.4%)
Total: 224.5 points BPI Projected Total: 248.3 points

Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Jake LaRavia, (GTD – Back); Vince Williams Jr., (GTD – Shoulder); Ja Morant, (OUT – Personal); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee)
Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, (GTD – Foot); Luka Doncic, (OUT – Thigh)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. over 19.5 points. Jackson only managed 14 points on Saturday, but that was his first game under 21 points in his last four outings. Jackson has stepped up his scoring in Ja Morant’s absence, serving as the primary lieutenant to Desmond Bane. He’s averaging 21.3 PPG in 32.8 MPG over his last four outings. — Snellings

Trend: Déjà vu? These two teams played on Saturday and the Mavericks checked a lot of boxes: +15 points from 3-point land, held Jaren Jackson Jr. to his third worst FG% game of the season and saw three of five starters score north of 20 points. Sounds good, right? They lost the game and it wasn’t a fluke as they dropped three of four quarters. Under tickets have come through in 14 of Memphis’ past 20 road games and the Mavs are just 9-19-2 ATS this season when the under hits.— Soppe


Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 47-21 (36-31-1)
Rockets: 15-52 (25-39-3)

Line: Celtics (-12.5)
BPI Projection: Celtics: 134.2-120.9
Money Line: Celtics (-900), Rockets (+600)
BPI Projected winner: Celtics (88.6%)
Total: 231.5 points BPI Projected Total: 255.1 points

Injury Report:
Celtics: Payton Pritchard, (GTD – Heel); Robert Williams III, (GTD – Hamstring); Danilo Gallinari, (OUT – Knee)
Rockets: Alperen Sengun, (GTD – Groin)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Derrick White over 23.5 points + assists + rebounds. The matchup between the Celtics and Rockets has blowout potential, which is great for White. He’s surpassed 23.5 PAR in two straight games. In 28 games this season where White has played 30 or more minutes, he’s averaged 17.0 points, 5.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds. The Rockets rank 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Eric Moody


Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors
10 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Records (Against the Spread)
Suns: 37-30 (36-29-2)
Warriors: 35-33 (32-35-1)

Line: Warriors (-4.5)
BPI Projection: Warriors (134.2-129.8)
Money Line: Suns (+158), Warriors (-190)
BPI Projected winner: Warriors (52.8%)
Total: 236 points BPI Projected Total: 260.4 points

Injury Report:
Suns: Landry Shamet, (OUT – Foot); Kevin Durant, (OUT – Ankle)
Warriors: Andre Iguodala, (GTD – Hip); Draymond Green, (GTD – Ankle); Jonathan Kuminga, (GTD – Ankle); Andrew Wiggins, (OUT – Personal); Gary Payton II, (OUT – Abdomen); Ryan Rollins, (OUT – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Josh Okogie (available in 95.1% of leagues) is a solid game-to-game performer that has more scoring upside with Kevin Durant sidelined. He established himself largely before Durant arrived, averaging 17.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.9 3PG, 1.8 SPG and 1.3 APG in 34.6 MPG over eight contests between February 9 and March 3. He fell back for a couple games, but was back for 15 points, 3 3-pointers, 2 rebounds, 1 steal an d1 block in 35 minutes on Saturday with Durant sidelined. — Snellings

Best bet: Devin Booker over 36.5 total points + assists. Booker has been on a heater this entire month, averaging 36.0 PPG and 7.0 APG in March thus far. He had his most down game of the month on Saturday, managing “only” 28 points and 8 assists to be barely under 36.5, but he’s notched at least 41 points + assists in every other game this month and could be in for a bounce-back against a Warriors’ squad that ranks middle-of-the-pack in points allowed and bottom-10 in assists allowed to opposing shooting guards. — Snellings

Trend: Golden State had a nice bounce back win on Saturday and have now covered each of their past seven home games (unders are 5-2 in those games). They host a Suns team that has a losing ATS mark this season when unders hit … but let’s dig a little deeper. The Suns are just 10-23-1 ATS when scoring under 115 points and the Warriors have held seven of their past nine opponents to under 115 points in regulation.— Soppe


Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 48-19 (36-26-5)
Kings: 40-26 (37-29-0)

Line: Bucks (-2)
BPI Projection: Bucks: 132.9-132.7
Money Line: Bucks (-130), Kings (+110)
BPI Projected winner: Bucks (50.9%)
Total: 244.5 BPI Projected Total: 265.6

Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Hand); Wesley Matthews, (GTD – Calf)
Kings: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Domantas Sabonis over 37.5 points+ assists + rebounds. Over the last six games, Sabonis has averaged 21.5 points, 7.7 assists, and 11.5 rebounds. He’s had a standout season and should continue to have success against the Bucks on Monday night. Sabonis scored 23 points, dished out seven assists, and grabbed 12 rebounds against Milwaukee earlier this season. –Eric Moody

Best bet: De’Aaron Fox under 4.5 first quarter points. Fox has been a late-game performer all season, but his early game/late game contrast has been even more stark of late. Fox tends to play the first five minutes of a game, then sit for most of the rest of the quarter before returning with a minute or two left. In the month of March, he has only scored more than four points in the first quarter once, when he scored five, but in his last couple of games he’s been closer to two points in the first before picking it up later in the game. — Snellings

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