Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves -6.5 (-110) – 3 Stars
The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, regardless of how you want to look at things. Whether it’s their fourth-worst record (17-43) or their seventh-worst against-the-spread (ATS) record (26-32-2), things haven’t gone well for them. It’s been even worse since the start of February as they have been 2-6 ATS this month.
When it comes to the Timberwolves, they aren’t significantly better ATS (23-32) this season, but things have been trending upward lately. Over their last 15 games, the Timberwolves are 9-6 ATS, a solid improvement compared to their season rate.
The Timberwolves are also fully in the hunt for the Western Conference playoff picture, so there’s no reason for them to take their foot off the gas if they have the lead.
Our algorithm is a fan of the Timberwolves tonight, giving this bet a three-star rating.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Over 230.5 Points (-110) – 3 Stars
The algorithm loves the over in this game and is giving it a three-star rating. That shouldn’t be too much of a surprise given what we’ve seen from both of these teams this season.
The Warriors are first in the league in pace while the Rockets are sitting at 15th. Whenever we get a matchup of two teams in the top half of the league in offensive pace, it’s not going to be a surprise to see a lot of points put on the board.
This has led to the Warriors’ over record being 35-22-2 this season, which tops the league. The over has gone 29-29 in Rockets games, but since the start of February, their over record is 6-2.
With both teams in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency and playing at a fast pace, it won’t be a surprise to see this game hit the over with ease.