Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons
Over 230.0 (-110)
Portland Trail Blazers Over Team Total of 218.5 (-102)
This game got bumped up a day to account for tomorrow’s matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards, and while an extra day of rest couldn’t have hurt, the Pistons’ injury list was going to be long either way.
As for the Portland Trail Blazers, they played yesterday and beat the Orlando Magic 122-119 and now have to travel. Despite this, we have reasons to like the over.
In games with Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant but without Simons and Nurkic on the floor, Portland holds a 126.1 offensive rating when removing garbage-time possessions. Whew. Their defensive rating (120.8) is nearly as bad as their offense is good.
Detroit’s sample gets small once trying to account for all of their injuries, but I’m settling in on their offensive rating being around the NBA average (113.0) with a 119.1 defensive rating.
These are two bad defenses with one very capable offense. If you worry about the Pistons, you can also bet the Blazers to go over 118.5 (-102) on their own.
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks +3.0 (-110)
These two teams largely hover around the NBA average in a lot of ways.
The Hawks, on the year, are 14-19 on the road but have a narrow -1.8 point differential (and an adjusted net rating of only -1.3).
The Miami Heat, at home, are 20-12 despite a +0.8 point differential. Their cover rate at home is only 30.0%.
Yes, these two teams squared up two days ago, a 117-109 win for the Heat in Miami. However, the relevant ratings here show value on the Hawks to keep it close and cover the 3.0-point spread.
Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-235)
Denver Nuggets -6.0 (-110)
numberFire’s model is giving the Nuggets a 75.1% chance to pick up the win. Their moneyline odds are -235 (suggesting implied odds of 70.2%), and that makes their moneyline a two-star suggestion.
My model thinks the Nuggets get the win 79.3% of the time, as well.
Denver is phenomenal at home (29-4 with a league-best opponent-adjusted net rating of +11.0 and a league-best cover rate of 69.7%).
The Toronto Raptors are 12-20 overall away from home with a -0.3 adjusted net rating. They’ve covered in only 40.0% of their road games, and their relevant net rating for this matchup is only +1.0 despite a lot of good health right now for their starting lineup.