NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 2/9/23: Examining All 4 Games for Value

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Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic +6.5 (-110)

With Jamal Murray listed as out, we have to adjust the Denver Nuggets‘ data for this matchup against the Orlando Magic, a team that’s actually pretty solid at home (13-14). With Murry off the floor but in games with Nikola Jokic, the team’s net rating is +5.4, and their offensive rating is super high at 121.4.

The Magic are listing Gary Harris as questionable, and their relevant net rating for this matchup would be -1.8 as a result.

My model is preferring the Magic to cover and thinks they should be just 3.5-point underdogs.

I also like(d) the over initially, but now that it’s climbed to 232, it’s a lean on the over at best, so I’ll stick to taking the points here.

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn Nets Moneyline (-118)

So, yeah, there’s some news for this game.

The Brooklyn Nets have traded Kevin Durant and T.J. Warren to the Phoenix Suns for a package of Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Jae Crowder, and four first-round picks.

The team also recently dealt Kyrie Irving to the Dallas Mavericks, and Seth Curry is out for tonight’s game.

Surprisingly, the Brooklyn Nets have maintained a +1.7 net rating even with Irving, Durant, Warren, and Curry off the floor over 194 minutes and 398 possessions (removing low-leverage possessions from the data).

The Chicago Bulls are a very average team, and they list DeMar DeRozan as questionable for this game. With him active, their net rating is +1.4, and their record is 25-25. With him inactive, their record is 1-3, and their net rating is -2.0.

It’s pretty telling that the Nets are still 1.5-point favorites. My model — accounting for all the absences — thinks they still pick up the win.

numberFire’s model likes that as a four-star play, as well.

Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks

Phoenix Suns +7.0 (-110)

The Phoenix Suns, who are on a three-game road winning streak, are listing Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, and Landry Shamet as out for this game.

If we remove Booker, Payne, Shamet, Bridges, and Johnson from the dataset in games with both Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton active, the Suns’ net rating is -1.1 over 1,087 possessions.

The Atlanta Hawks are pretty healthy overall, but they’re coming off of a five-game road trip (during which they went 2-3) and ended with two losses. At home, Atlanta is 13-11 on the year; their relevant net rating for this game is +0.2.

I’m not huge on anything here, yet the model does suggest that seven points are enough to back the Suns while the roster is super thin.

Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers

Under 239.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Lakers‘ relevant net rating here is -1.3 with their key players healthy.

At home this season, they’re 13-13 with a 48.0% cover rate but a positive spread-adjusted point differential (+2.5). Notably, they go over their own implied team total 64.0% of the time and hold opponents under theirs at a 60.0% rate.

Unfortunately for them, the Milwaukee Bucks are dominant so long as they’re healthy. Their key net rating here is +13.6, and they are a better-than-average road team by adjusted point differential (-1.3 compared to the league average of -3.0).

That keeps me away from the spread and moneyline, personally.

My model is anticipating only 230.8 points here, and numberFire’s model likes the under as a three-star play, as well.

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