Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets
Under 222.5 (-110)
We have some injuries shaping up for this game, primarily on the Charlotte Hornets‘ side.
As a result, my model is seeing this one a bit closer than the 8.0-point spread mathematically, yet I’m not that interested in a late-season heavy home underdog unless the conditions are a bit better.
What ultimately stands out, as a result of the injuries, is the under.
My model is projecting a total of only 214.7 for this game, which is probably a bit low, but that’s well off the pace of 222.5.
Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 (-114)
These teams are more or less full-go as we’ve grown to know them in recent games, which is always welcomed at this point in the season.
Stemming from that, this winds up being a matchup with a slightly-better-than-zero team by non-garbage-time net rating with the Thunder at +0.4 and with a below-par team playing the role as the visitors with the Brooklyn Nets at a -2.6 once accounting for their current rotation, a sample that is up to nearly 1,000 minutes.
Once factoring in rest (a day each for these teams) and home-court advantage, my model thinks the spread should be Thunder -4.6 rather than just 1.5.
The Nets have a -6.9 opponent-adjusted net rating in road games since the break, too.
Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns
Under 232.0 (-110)
A lot of the games tonight are marred with questionable tags that make it hard to lay out value early in the day, so I’m going to a game where we mostly know who is going to miss.
In road games with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday but without Middleton, the Bucks are 9-5 overall (despite a point differential of 0.0). Those games end with an average score of 109.9 to 109.9 for a total of 219.8. Milwaukee has surpassed its own implied team total in only 5 of those 14 games (35.7%) and have fallen short by an average of 4.1 points in that regard.
The Suns, in eight games without Durant and the guys they traded but with their original big three of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton, average 116.5 points per game and allow 112.5 for a total of 229.0.
numberFire’s model has the under as a four-star play, as well.