NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 3/21/23: Can the Kings Cover at Home?


Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where can we identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic

Over 225.0 (-110)

There isn’t much at stake in terms of playoff hopes in this game between the Washington Wizards and Orlando Magic, as the Magic are on the absolute brink of being eliminated, and the Wizards’ playoff hopes sit at 8.8%, per numberFire’s model.

Despite that, there should be some scoring in this game.

Since the All-Star break, Magic games have averaged 231.8 points (excluding overtime games) with the Wizards a bit lower at 223.1. Combined, that’s 227.4 per game.

Based on current health and rotations, my model projects this game to put up 230.2 points, thanks to some weak defense primarily.

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans

Over 232.0 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans Moneyline (-800)

The San Antonio Spurs are still showing some scrappiness despite a 19-52 record overall. They’re 5-5 in their past 10 games and just won their most recent matchup in the final few minutes over the Atlanta Hawks.

As for the Pelicans, they are on the outside of the playoff race and need to start a streak after winning their last game. They’re only 4-6 in their past 10.

Favored by 13.0, the Pelicans are in great shape to beat the shorthanded Spurs, so their moneyline is very gettable and can be paired in parlays with some other options, though we can’t assume it’s a total lock by any means.

What is more intriguing is the over at 232.0.

Accounting for injuries, my model anticipates 236.9 points. numberFire’s algorithm likes this game to score 233.9.

Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings

Sacramento Kings +5.0 (-106)

Though they’re 4.5 games back from the Denver Nuggets, the Kings are just one game back from the second-place Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference standings.

Notably, they list Kevin Huerter as questionable, yet their net rating and offensive rating take only small bumps without him so long as De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are active.

The Boston Celtics are the 2 seed, currently, in the East and hold a half-game advantage over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Boston, though, is 5-5 in their past 10 games, and the Kings are 7-3. In terms of opponent-adjusted net rating over the past 10 games, I have the Kings at a +4.1 and the Celtics at a +1.9, too.

Even with a back-to-back for Sacramento and two days of rest for the Celtics, numberFire’s model likes the Kings +5.0 as a one-star (i.e. one-unit) suggestion and considers them 55.0% likely to cover at home.

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