Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there’s just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night — spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight’s NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards
Over 227.0 (-110)
Washington Wizards +7.0 (-110)
The Wizards dropped a road game last night against the Orlando Magic by a score of 122-112 and are now 2.5 games back from the 10 seed in the Eastern Conference. They’re now only 2-8 over their past 10 games and have lost three straight games.
Washington, in 14 post-break games, is only 4-10 with a point differential of -5.6. Despite a 2-6 home record in that stretch, their point differential is only -1.6, so there could be more wins than they’ve actually had lately.
As for the Denver Nuggets, they’re “only” 7-6 in 13 post-break games themselves, including a 4-4 road record with just a +0.6 point differential (which does climb to +3.1 once I adjust for opponents faced).
Accounting for injuries here, my model likes this game to accrue 232.1 points.
numberFire’s model likes Washington +7.0 as a one-star (i.e. one-unit) wager, too.
New York Knicks at Miami Heat
New York Knicks +1.5 (-110)
Each team here has had at least one day of rest (one for the Knicks and two for the Miami Heat).
The Knicks, currently the 5 seed in the East, are 5-2 in road games since the All-Star break, which is tied to a +2.0 point differential and just a +1.0 adjusted net rating. But they’ve covered in five of those seven games and are still in a position to make a final push to get up to the 4 seed if they can overcome a 2.5-game gap between them and the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Heat are an even 7-7 since the break in spite of a -2.7 point differential and hold just a 35.7% cover rate in that split.
It’s an even matchup for the most part, but the baked-in home-court advantage has the wrong team favored, so we can take the +1.5 for the Knicks.
numberFire’s model likes them to cover with a 59.5% probability.
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
Over 227.5 (-110)
This national television game will lack some big names on both sides.
Adjust we must. Adjust we will.
It’s understandable to want to jump on unders when scorers are out, yet it’s not always the right play.
The Suns, in games with Chris Paul and Devin Booker but without Durant, Ayton, and others no longer with the team, are still averaging 115.6 points and allowing 113.9 for a total of 229.5 and a 54.5% over rate.
My model likes this game to total 231.1 points; numberFire’s likes it to get to 228.6, good enough for a one-star suggestion there.