Ahead of Friday’s stand-alone English Premier League match, we’re set to provide a Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle United prediction.
For hosts Forest, they find themselves amid a relegation battle. Following a road loss to Tottenham last week, manager Steve Cooper’s side sits only two points clear of the drop zone.
Meanwhile, visiting Newcastle has reignited their chase for a Champions League spot after winning at home last week against Wolves. With two games in hand, the Magpies sit four points behind Tottenham for the final UCL spot.
On Friday, Newcastle is a -150 road favorite with Forest +425 on the moneyline. The draw is +275 and the total is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -140 to the under.
Both Teams to Score — “Yes” (+100 or better)
When these sides met on Matchday 1 in Newcastle, the Magpies produced a dominant offensive performance.
Across the entire match, manager Eddie Howe’s side created 2.07 expected goals on target (xGOT) along with two big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.
While bettors shouldn’t expect a similar output away from home — after all, Newcastle creates almost 0.6 xGOT per 90 fewer when playing away from home — it will be a huge surprise if they fail to score. Take stock of their past four games against teams not named Manchester City and bettors will find the Magpies have created 1.7 xGOT per 90 minutes.
Although three of those four games came at home, this remains a side that generated 2.36 xGOT in a road match against Bournemouth, a side that’s averaging 0.2 xGOT per 90 more defensively than Nottingham Forest.
The Forest defense has kept only eight clean sheets this season, but three of those were undeserved based on xGOT data.
At home, they’ve kept only three teams under 0.75 xGOT: Crystal Palace, Leeds United and Leicester City. Seeing as all three of those offenses are statistically worse than Newcastle, bank on the visitors to bag a goal.
Thus, that leaves the onus on Forest to cash this ticket.
With the EPL newcomers, their home/road offensive splits are quite meaningful. At home, manager Steve Cooper’s side is creating 1.19 non-penalty xGOT per 90. Away from home, that measure drops to 0.56.
Plus, the Tricky Trees have failed to score in only one home game this season and are coming off a strong offensive performance away from home, where they created 1.8 xGOT against Tottenham.
The one worry is that we’re fading a Newcastle defense that has conceded a mere 0.7 xGOT per 90 away from home this season and held Manchester City and Arsenal to a combined 0.86 xGOT per 90.
However, I’m willing to trust the Forest attack to a certain extent. Back this market only if it’s available at +100 or better.