Super Bowl 2024 pick against the spread: 49ers vs. Chiefs odds, prediction

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Post sports gambling editor/producer Erich Richter is in his first season in the Bettor’s Guide.  

San Francisco 49ers (-2) over Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City can’t keep up with these playmakers of San Francisco.

If not for boneheaded Baltimore turnovers by their young playmakers and a tilted Lamar Jackson, the Chiefs wouldn’t be here.

Don’t expect that kind of help from Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk.

Throw out the advanced stats, which all favor the 49ers, and go unit for unit. Aside from quarterback and secondary, all other units favor the 49ers.

Running backs, offensive and defensive lines, and linebackers would all grade out for the 49ers.

They’ve been the best or second-best team all year.

Don’t let the Mahomes magic fool you into an underdog bet, where they should be 4.5-point ’dogs.


George Kittle #85 looks on during San Francisco 49ers practice ahead of Super Bowl LVIII. Getty Images

49ers-Chiefs Under 47.5

The Super Bowl Under has hit in 11 of the past 19 games, including four of the past five.

We all know prime-time games have also gone Under at an alarming 74.36 percent rate through November of the regular season (most available data).

I have a whole theory that this is brought on by abundance of commercial breaks ruining the game flow, but we’ll save that for another time.


Betting on the NFL?


For now, just focus on the teams, as the Under is 12-5 in Chiefs games this season, including five of their past six.

The 49ers had eight Unders in 17 games, but the bet is really a fade of the Chiefs’ offense.

We saw Kansas City get into a punt fest in the second half against Baltimore. Expect more of the same as the 49ers fly around against the Chiefs.

Championship week: 1-1. 49ers-Lions Over (W), Chiefs-Ravens Over (L).

Season: 19-21-2.

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