Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Past against Arsenal – who wins Premier League?

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Pep Guardiola has won the Premier League five times with Manchester City

Two teams. One day. One trophy.

The Premier League title race is going down to the final day for just the 10th time. But will it be Manchester City or Arsenal fans celebrating this weekend?

Manchester City are two points clear at the top and would be the first side to win four consecutive top-flight titles if they overcome West Ham at home on Sunday, 19 May (16:00 BST).

But if City fail to win Arsenal will lift the title if they beat Everton at Emirates Stadium in a match at the same time.

Anything other than an Arsenal win will hand City the title. The Gunners are the underdogs – no team has come from second to win the Premier League title on the final day.

Team Played Points GD GS Form (past 5 games)
1. Man City 37 88 60 93 WWWWW
2. Arsenal 37 86 61 89 WWWWW
If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference and, if still level, goals scored

What do the stats say about Arsenal’s chances?

According to Opta,external-link Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League stand at just 16% while City remain favourites on 84%.

The Gunners would have had an 81% chance of winning the title if City had lost to Tottenham on Tuesday – and a 75% chance if that match had ended in a draw.

Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Nielsen’s Gracenote, gives Manchester City an 83.5% chance of lifting the title to Arsenal’s 16.5%.

Before Manchester City’s 2-0 win over Tottenham, City had a 60% chance to Arsenal’s 40%.

Gleave said: “Arsenal’s incredible run of 15 wins in 17 matches since the turn of the year would probably have been enough to win the league in most seasons ,but Manchester City have proven formidable title race opponents and have won 15 of their 18 matches over the same period.”

Gracenote's chart of how the Premier League title race chances of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool have fluctuated over the 2023-24 season.
Gracenote’s chart of how the Premier League title race chances of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool have fluctuated over the 2023-24 season.

What if the teams finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Arsenal have the better goal difference on 61 compared to City’s 60.

If the two teams were to finish level, City would have to draw – meaning their goal difference would stay the same, and Arsenal would have to win – increasing their already superior tally.

Whatever happens, do not be too surprised if there are more twists and turns on the final day of the season.

How did it all unfold last year?

Graph showing how the 2022-23 Premier League title race unfolded
Three draws in a row in April 2023 cost Arsenal momentum as Manchester City won last season’s title, with the Gunners’ probability of being champions nosediving

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